避险热潮未退支撑金价 3700关口成“生死线”

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating conflict between Israel and Palestine, have significantly influenced the rise in gold prices, with current trading around $3680. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the dynamics around the $3700 level, which will dictate future gold price movements [1][2]. Geopolitical Factors - The intensifying conflict between Israel and Palestine has heightened market concerns about regional instability and potential impacts on energy supply, leading to increased investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite being in a stalemate, continues to pose risks that support gold's appeal as a safe investment [2]. Economic Context - There is a prevailing expectation in the market that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates, which typically weakens the dollar. A weaker dollar reduces the cost of gold for holders of other currencies, thereby stimulating demand for gold [2]. - On September 17, gold prices struggled to maintain momentum above the $3700 mark due to a balance of buying and selling pressures, with some investors opting to take profits [2]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices experienced a strong upward movement, breaking through the previous high of $3574 and reaching new highs, currently in a phase of consolidation and potential further upward movement [3]. - Key support levels are identified around $3676-80, with a bullish outlook maintained as long as prices remain above the critical level of $3650 [3].