高库存流通压力依然存在 菜籽粕盘面回归震荡格局

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for rapeseed meal is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping significantly by 2.15% to 2463.00 CNY/ton as of the report date [1] Market Summary - On September 16, the price of ordinary rapeseed meal in coastal regions ranged from 2590 to 2700 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 20 to 30 CNY/ton compared to the previous trading day, and a rise of 0 to 20 CNY/ton compared to the same week last year [2] - Domestic rapeseed inventory continues to decline, currently at approximately 80,000 tons, with operating rates decreasing and downstream purchasing performance being average. The inventory of oil mills has dropped to 17,000 tons [2] - According to foreign media, the oilseed crushing volume in the EU 27 countries plus the UK is projected to be 1.8 million tons by August 2025, up from 1.348 million tons in July and 1.785 million tons in August of the previous year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Dongwu Futures indicates that while there is still high inventory pressure in the short term, the low rapeseed inventory and limited future shipping orders provide a basis for potential upward volatility [3] - Dayue Futures notes that the rapeseed meal market is influenced by the final ruling on anti-dumping measures against Canadian canola, which may lead to fluctuations. Additionally, rumors of recent tariff reductions between China and Canada suggest a return to a volatile trading pattern, with a focus on future developments. The rapeseed meal price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2480 to 2540 CNY [3]