美联储决议前瞻：若仅降息25个基点，美元或有望反弹

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is hovering near a 41-month low, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have reached record highs, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market is pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reflecting a dovish sentiment [1] - If the Fed only implements the expected 25 basis point cut, a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction may occur, potentially leading to a rebound in the dollar and profit-taking in the US stock market [1] Group 2: Rate Cut Speculations - To sustain the dollar's decline and the rise of US assets, a 50 basis point cut and acknowledgment of aggressive easing by Fed Chair Powell may be necessary [1] - Although the market perceives only a 3% probability for a 50 basis point cut, the possibility cannot be ruled out, especially if US employment data is significantly revised downward [1]