黄金狂飙至新高后多头暂喘息

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing high volatility, with prices fluctuating around $3,680 after reaching a peak of $3,703, as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is ongoing, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first reduction since November 2024 [2]. - The U.S. Census Bureau reported a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales for August, indicating resilient consumer spending despite economic slowdowns and inflation [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Sentiment - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including attacks in Ukraine and military actions in Gaza, are providing safe-haven support for gold prices [2]. - Market caution due to these tensions is limiting further declines in gold prices [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show signs of upward exhaustion for gold, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 81, indicating overbought conditions [3]. - The current price is significantly above all moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at approximately $3,516, indicating strong bullish momentum [3]. - Short-term support is identified at $3,657, while momentum indicators are showing positive trends, although the RSI is around 70, suggesting a lack of clear direction [3]. Group 4: Price Levels - Key resistance levels for gold prices are identified at $3,700, $3,720, and $3,750, while support levels are at $3,660, $3,630, and $3,600 [4].