短期现货拉动鸡蛋期价反弹 何时超淘将成为后市主导因素

Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market has shown signs of recovery after hitting a low in August, driven by seasonal demand and expectations of culling hens, but the market remains in a prolonged state of competition with high supply pressure and uncertain capacity reduction [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of September 17, the main egg futures contract closed at 3122 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.32% [1]. - The demand for stocking ahead of the double festival and expectations regarding hen culling have contributed to the recent rebound in prices [1][4]. - The current high inventory of laying hens, which stood at 1.365 billion in August, represents a 5.9% year-on-year increase, indicating persistent supply pressure [2]. Group 2: Production and Cost Factors - The average laying hen cycle has extended to 2-2.5 years, with the current profit cycle lasting 45 months, which is longer than usual [2]. - The feed conversion ratio has improved, with leading farms achieving a ratio below 1.9, while most smallholders maintain a ratio between 2.1 and 2.15 [3]. - Cost control measures, such as the use of alternative feed ingredients, have contributed to maintaining profit margins in egg production [3]. Group 3: Culling and Supply Outlook - The market is experiencing intensified competition, with uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of hen culling, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand [4][5]. - Current data indicates that the average age of culled hens is around 495 days, suggesting that the market has not yet reached a point of excessive culling [5]. - Projections indicate that the peak supply growth may occur in September, with a potential shift to negative year-on-year growth by December [5]. Group 4: Profitability and Market Sentiment - As of early September, the profitability of egg production has shifted from a loss of 0.13 yuan per kg to a profit of 0.26 yuan, marking a significant turnaround [7]. - The current market sentiment reflects a rebound in prices due to an overload of bearish expectations, rather than a fundamental reversal in the market [7]. - The high inventory levels and existing profitability are likely to hinder rapid capacity reduction in the near term [7].