Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ethylene industry is currently in an expansion cycle, with overseas capacity facing accelerated exit pressures. A turning point for ethylene is expected after 2027 based on global capacity deployment plans [1][3]. Industry Summary - China's ethylene industry is still expanding, with nearly 25 million tons of projects planned for the next three years. Despite rapid capacity expansion in recent years, there remains an ethylene equivalent gap of over 21 million tons in 2024, with an import dependency of 31%. The planned capacity to be added from 2025 to 2027 totals 24.82 million tons, which could potentially close the domestic ethylene gap by the end of 2027 if ongoing projects are completed as scheduled [1][3]. - Overseas capacity is accelerating its exit, particularly in Europe and Japan/Korea, where the risk of shutdown is high due to older production facilities. The capacity expected to exit globally from 2025 to 2027 is estimated to be between 5.97 million and 8.3 million tons, accounting for 3-4% of global capacity [2]. - The global supply structure is being reshaped, with net capacity increases projected at approximately 1.126 million tons in 2025, 1.565 million tons in 2026, and 840 million tons in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 4.9%, 6.5%, and 3.3% respectively. A slowdown in capacity growth is anticipated post-2027, with a marginal improvement expected in the ethylene industry due to an annual demand growth rate of around 3.5% and the time required to absorb new capacity [3]. - To improve the ethylene industry, it is crucial to control new capacity and reduce investment scale. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments are set to evaluate aging petrochemical facilities starting in July 2025, which may lead to further clearance of outdated refining and ethylene capacity. Continuous monitoring of domestic and international policies regarding ethylene is recommended, as strict control over new total capacity and restructuring of old capacity could accelerate the industry's turning point [4]. Company Focus - Key companies to watch in the ethylene production sector include low-cost alternative route producers such as Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) and Baofeng Energy (600989.SH), as well as private refining enterprises like Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ), and Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ). State-owned refining company Shanghai Petrochemical (600688.SH) is also noteworthy, along with other related companies like Huajin Co. (000059.SZ) [5].
中金：国内乙烯仍处于扩张周期 关注行业控产后续政策
智通财经网·2025-09-17 07:06