降息预期为金银托底 贸易摩擦与政策扰动添波动

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that investors are betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to fluctuations in gold and silver prices [1][2][3] - Spot gold first broke through $3700 per ounce but later experienced a short-term drop, ultimately closing up 0.29% at $3689.46 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver closed down 0.38% at $42.50 per ounce, reflecting the overall market sentiment influenced by monetary policy expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell, while economic data showed that U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in August, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, indicating strong consumer resilience [3] - The ongoing trade policy uncertainties, including agreements between the EU and Indonesia, proposed tariffs on auto parts by the U.S., and intensified trade negotiations between the U.S. and India, are supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals [3] - Market volatility is expected to increase around the Federal Reserve's policy statement, especially if the rate cut is accompanied by hawkish guidance or cautious signals regarding future policy [3] Group 3 - Overall, economic data has not changed the expectations for interest rate cuts, and ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties suggest that gold and silver prices will likely maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short to medium term [4] - Technically, gold is expected to find support at $3600, with potential to challenge the $3800 level, while silver could target $45 if it stabilizes around the $43 mark [4]