内蒙古超产核查落地，原煤产量理论同比减少6117万吨

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the overproduction of coal in Inner Mongolia, with a significant portion of coal mines exceeding their approved production capacities, leading to potential supply constraints and price rebounds in the coal market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production Data - In 2024, Inner Mongolia's coal production exceeded the approved capacity by 6,116.9 thousand tons, resulting in an overproduction rate of 4.95% [1][2]. - For the first half of 2025, the region's coal production surpassed the approved capacity by 2,121.9 thousand tons, with an overproduction rate of 3.43% [1][2]. - A total of 299 coal mines were reviewed, with a combined capacity of 123,570 thousand tons per year, and 93 mines were found to be operating above their announced capacities [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - Strict enforcement of overproduction regulations is in place, with 15 coal mines in Ordos City required to halt operations for rectification due to exceeding production limits by 10% [3]. - The combined capacity of these 15 mines is estimated at 3,220 thousand tons per year, representing 2.61% of Inner Mongolia's total capacity [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The supply of coal is expected to continue contracting, potentially impacting around 400 million tons of supply due to ongoing regulatory measures and the transition of some capacities to "reserve" status [3]. - As the demand for electricity coal shifts into a low season, non-electric demand is anticipated to gradually increase, which may support a rebound in coal prices [3]. - The current market conditions, characterized by declining port inventories and ongoing supply restrictions, are expected to improve the fundamentals of the coal market, leading to a potential price increase back to levels seen in Q3 2024 [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high spot price elasticity stocks, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy, and stable growth stocks like Jinko Coal Industry and Huayang Co., Ltd. [4]. - It also recommends monitoring companies with recovery growth in production, such as Shanxi Coal International, and industry leaders like China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [4].