豆粕仍处于弱现实强预期格局 价格重心小幅下移

Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and overall supply pressures impacting the market dynamics [1][2][3] Market Data Summary - On September 17, the main soybean meal futures contract closed at 3002.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.44% [1] - Coastal regions reported soybean meal prices ranging from 2960 to 3090 CNY/ton on September 16, with variations of a decrease of 20 CNY/ton to an increase of 20 CNY/ton compared to the previous day, and a decline of 0 to 20 CNY/ton compared to the same week last year [2] - The European Commission reported a 4.6% year-on-year decrease in soybean meal imports for the 2025/26 fiscal year, totaling 3.76 million tons as of September 14 [2] Export and Production Insights - Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) projected soybean meal exports for September at 2.19 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 2.11 million tons [2] - Brazilian corn exports are expected to reach 7.12 million tons, up from 6.96 million tons the previous week [2] Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures noted a slight reduction in U.S. soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, but an increase in planting and harvesting area led to a total production rise to 4.301 billion bushels. Weak export demand, particularly to China, has resulted in an increase in ending stocks to 300 million bushels, with market focus on U.S.-China trade relations [3] - Hualian Futures highlighted that recent U.S.-China talks did not address soybean purchases, leaving concerns about domestic soybean shortages unresolved. Brazilian soybean planting is set to begin, with favorable weather conditions in late September [3] - The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by a "weak reality, strong expectations" scenario, with short-term supply limiting price increases. A wide fluctuation in soybean meal prices is anticipated, with support levels suggested between 2900 and 3000 CNY/ton [3]