时隔九个月，今晚美联储将重启降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming meeting, influenced by recent employment growth slowdown and a shift in focus towards employment issues rather than inflation concerns [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Expectations - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is approximately 96%, while a 50 basis point cut is only 4% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [3]. - Recent disappointing economic data has heightened market concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market, which could impact consumer spending and economic growth [5]. - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may face internal divisions during the meeting, with some officials advocating for a larger rate cut while others may prefer to maintain current rates [8][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 index typically shows positive returns within 12 to 24 months following the Federal Reserve's first or resumed rate cuts [20]. - In periods of relative economic strength with only one or two rate cuts, cyclical sectors like financials and industrials tend to outperform the market, while in weaker economic conditions requiring multiple cuts, defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples perform better [22]. - Gold prices historically rise when the Federal Reserve cuts rates while inflation remains above the target, with predictions suggesting gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [22]. Group 3: Implications for Chinese Markets - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on Chinese markets varies based on the nature of the cuts, with "preventive" cuts leading to market rallies and "recessionary" cuts resulting in adjustments due to global economic downturns [23][26]. - Following preventive rate cuts, sectors such as technology, food and beverage, and healthcare are expected to perform well in the A-share market, while recessionary cuts favor defensive assets like financials and energy [26].