Is Lululemon Stock Finally a Buy Below $170?

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon is experiencing significant challenges, with its stock down nearly 70% from all-time highs, attributed to increased competition and changing consumer trends in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue growth in the Americas has slowed, with a mere 1% increase last quarter and a 3% decline in comparable-store sales on a constant-dollar basis, marking one of the worst periods for the brand in its home market [4] - Gross profit margin decreased to 58.5% from 59.6% year over year, and operating income fell by 3%, resulting in a margin of just over 20% [12] - Lululemon's market cap stands at $19 billion, trading at less than 8 times its trailing operating income, indicating a historically cheap valuation [14] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Lululemon faces competition from emerging brands like Alo Yoga, Vuori, and Gymshark, while established competitors such as Nike and Adidas show mixed performance; Nike's revenue declined by 11%, Adidas grew by 8%, and Athleta's revenue fell by 9% year over year [5][6] - Despite the challenges, Lululemon is reportedly gaining market share in the performance apparel category in the U.S., making its 1% growth rate more acceptable to investors [6] Group 3: International Growth - Internationally, Lululemon is performing well, with China revenue growing by 24% year over year and revenue outside of China and North America increasing by 15% [9] - Revenue from outside North America now constitutes 30% of Lululemon's overall revenue, with expectations for this percentage to rise as the company expands its presence in new markets [9][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates $240 million in additional gross profit headwinds this year due to tariffs, which may impact future margins and operating income [13] - Despite potential margin compression, Lululemon's stock is viewed as extraordinarily cheap, especially if international revenue growth continues [14][15]