旺季遇上反常行情，超市猪肉跌破每斤10元

Core Viewpoint - The traditional peak season for pork consumption, "Golden September and Silver October," is experiencing an unusual downturn in prices, attributed to oversupply, weak demand, and misaligned market expectations [5]. Price Trends - As of September 16, the average price of live pigs in China dropped to 13.20 yuan per kilogram, a significant year-on-year decline of 31.61%, with some regions seeing prices fall below 6 yuan per pound [1]. - Prices for pork cuts in Jinan supermarkets showed a notable decrease, with front leg meat dropping from 12.5 yuan to 7.9 yuan per pound [3]. Supply Dynamics - The slaughter capacity has decreased by approximately 15% compared to last year, with current procurement prices for live pigs falling to between 6.5 and 6.8 yuan per pound, down from 7.5 yuan last year [4]. - The number of breeding sows in China reached 40.43 million, exceeding the normal holding capacity by 3.7%, leading to increased production efficiency and higher pig stocks [8]. Demand Factors - Demand for pork has weakened, with reduced purchasing from the catering industry and lower consumer spending during holidays compared to previous years [5]. - Competition from alternative meats such as chicken, beef, and seafood has intensified, further squeezing the pork market [5]. Policy and Market Response - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission have initiated measures to reduce breeding sows by 1 million across 25 major enterprises by January 2026, aiming to address oversupply [9]. - Major pig farming companies are adjusting their strategies by optimizing breeding sow numbers and controlling piglet replenishment to reduce production capacity [9].