WTO公共论坛：2040年前人工智能可将国际贸易总额提升近4成

Core Insights - The WTO Public Forum will take place on September 17-18, 2023, in Geneva, focusing on the theme of harnessing the power of digital transformation [1] - The WTO's latest World Trade Report indicates that with the right policy guidance, AI could boost the overall value of cross-border goods and services trade by nearly 40% by 2024 [1][2] - AI is projected to contribute to a 34% to 37% increase in international trade value and a 12% to 13% growth in global GDP by 2040 [2] Group 1: AI and Trade Growth - AI has the potential to significantly lower trade costs and enhance productivity, but disparities in access to AI technology among countries remain a challenge [2][5] - The report emphasizes that effective trade, investment, and supporting policies can create new growth opportunities for all economies through AI [2][6] - The global trade value related to raw materials necessary for AI development is expected to reach $2.3 trillion in 2023 [5] Group 2: Economic Disparities and Policy Implications - If low- and middle-income economies can narrow the digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by 50%, their income could increase by 15% and 14%, respectively [6] - The design of trade and related policies will significantly influence whether AI can lead to inclusive growth [6][7] - The report highlights the importance of open and predictable trade policies, noting a significant increase in restrictive measures on AI-related goods from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024 [6][7] Group 3: WTO's Role and Recommendations - The WTO plays a crucial role in promoting inclusive benefits from AI and provides a forum for discussing AI-related trade measures among its members [7] - The report suggests that commitments to expand participation in the WTO's Information Technology Agreement and update commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services could enhance the inclusivity and affordability of AI [7]