Oil and gas field decline rates impact global energy security – IEA report

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports a significant acceleration in the decline rates of oil and gas fields globally, driven by increased reliance on shale and deep offshore resources, which poses challenges for maintaining current production levels [1][2] - The IEA emphasizes the necessity for continued investment to offset supply losses and ensure energy security [1][2] Investment Needs - Nearly 90% of upstream investment is required annually to counteract supply losses at existing oil and gas fields [2] - In 2010, halting upstream investment would have reduced oil supply by just under 4 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) annually, while today that figure has risen to 5.5 mbbl/d [3] Decline Rates - Decline rates vary significantly across field types and regions; onshore supergiant oil fields in the Middle East experience a decline of less than 2% per year, while smaller offshore fields in Europe decline by more than 15% annually [2] - Tight oil and shale gas fields face even steeper declines, with output falling by more than 35% in the first year without investment [3] Future Production Requirements - More than 45 mbbl/d of oil and nearly 2 trillion cubic meters of gas from new conventional fields will be required by 2050, equating to the total production of the top three producers combined [4] - These amounts could be reduced if oil and gas demand decreases [4] Timeline for New Fields - It takes almost 20 years on average from issuing an exploration license to first production, including nearly a decade for discovery and another decade for appraisal, approval, and construction [5]