最新一期环渤海综合煤炭价格指数小幅上涨 后续涨幅或受限

Core Viewpoint - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has shown a slight increase, reflecting structural supply issues and rising costs despite a seasonal decline in demand [1][2]. Supply Side Analysis - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index closed at 676 yuan per ton, up by 1 yuan from the previous period [1]. - There has been a noticeable increase in non-electric terminal procurement, particularly in coal-producing areas, leading to a rise in local prices [1]. - Although coal supply is gradually recovering due to government policies, the growth rate is slightly below expectations, and port inventory levels are not optimistic [1][2]. Demand Side Analysis - The daily coal consumption at power plants remains around 2.2 million tons, which is 200,000 tons lower than the same period last year, indicating a shift in inventory levels [1]. - The upcoming National Day holiday and maintenance on the Daqin line are expected to create a short-term increase in procurement demand, supporting coastal coal prices [1]. Market Outlook - The coastal coal market is currently characterized by weak supply and demand, with short-term price increases still possible due to cost support [2]. - However, the sustainability of the current price increase may be limited compared to previous rounds, influenced by the rise in clean energy generation and increased coal imports [2].