《世界贸易报告》：到2040年AI将推动全球贸易增长近40%

Core Insights - The WTO's 2025 World Trade Report highlights the evolving relationship between AI and international trade, emphasizing AI's potential to drive inclusive growth and significantly enhance global trade value by nearly 40% by 2040 [1] Group 1: AI's Impact on Trade and Growth - AI is expected to serve as a catalyst for more inclusive growth by lowering trade costs and expanding access to global markets, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [2] - The report forecasts that AI could lead to a substantial increase in global trade and GDP, with trade expected to rise by 34% to 37% by 2040, and digital services trade, including AI services, projected to grow by 42% [3] - AI's development and application are anticipated to contribute to global GDP growth, with increases ranging from 12% to 13% across different scenarios [4] Group 2: Trade's Role in AI Innovation - Trade can facilitate the diffusion of AI innovation, with a strong correlation between the growth of digital services trade and cross-border AI patent citations, indicating knowledge flow [5] - In 2023, the global trade value of AI-related inputs, including raw materials and semiconductors, reached $2.3 trillion, highlighting the importance of international markets for AI development [4] Group 3: Challenges and Policy Considerations - The report warns that the impact of AI on inclusive growth depends on the design of trade and related policies, as disparities in policy adoption between countries can exacerbate structural gaps, particularly regarding the digital divide [6][7] - High-income and upper-middle-income economies have more advanced policy frameworks for AI and digital trade, while low-income economies are lagging, limiting their ability to harness AI's potential [7] - The WTO emphasizes the need for targeted government support and international cooperation in policy adoption to ensure that trade continues to be a force for inclusive progress in the AI era [8]