Where Will Rivian Be in 2028, and Is It a Buy Now?

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive is at a critical juncture, with potential for long-term growth hinging on its ability to scale production and introduce new models, particularly the R2 and R3, which aim to capture a broader market segment [1][2][14]. Group 1: Current Status and Challenges - Rivian has had a relatively uneventful year in 2023, with no new vehicle launches, which can be seen as a positive since it indicates stability amidst industry challenges [1]. - The company has experienced slowing delivery growth and signs of waning demand, raising questions about its future performance [3]. - Rivian's immediate goal is to achieve consistent positive gross profits, which is complicated by the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit and tariff uncertainties [6]. Group 2: Future Product Launches - The R2 model is set to begin production in 2026, targeting a more affordable SUV segment with a starting price around $45,000 before shipping [5]. - Following the R2, the R3 is expected to have an even lower price point, likely under $40,000, and will feature a design appealing to younger buyers [7][9]. - The R3's production and deliveries are scheduled to start in mid-2028, as the company prioritizes the R2 to optimize costs [9]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Growth Potential - Rivian's commercial vans, initially produced exclusively for Amazon, are now available to other large fleet buyers, which could enhance scale and credibility [11][12]. - Securing additional large customers for its commercial vehicles could significantly impact Rivian's growth trajectory in the near term [12]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - In approximately three years, Rivian aims to improve production efficiency and cut costs to achieve positive gross margins and potentially turn a profit [13][14]. - The introduction of the R2 and R3 models is expected to drive revenue growth, with projections indicating a significant increase in revenue within a year if cost-cutting measures are successful [14].