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Boockvar: The market rewards earnings momentum and that creates stock momentum
Youtube·2025-09-17 12:00

Group 1: Market Performance and Stock Analysis - The discussion focuses on "dead money stocks" which have shown limited performance year-to-date, although some may have gains over a longer horizon, with KKR cited as an example [1] - Companies mentioned, such as Eli Lilly, are facing growth issues due to increased competition in their respective markets [2] - Concerns regarding Lockheed Martin include uncertainty about future US defense spending and competition from European military producers, as evidenced by Denmark's recent decision to purchase from a European company instead of RTX [3] - A lack of earnings growth and sustainable momentum has led to a stagnant situation for certain stocks [4] Group 2: Turnaround Opportunities - Some companies, like Nike, are in a turnaround phase, presenting potential investment opportunities despite being categorized as "dead money" [4][5] - The preference is expressed for identifying stock ideas on the 52-week low list, anticipating growth and turnaround situations, with Nike's new management and strategy highlighted as a positive example [5] Group 3: Company-Specific Challenges - Apple is noted for its significant weight in major indexes and stable revenues from the iPhone, but its stock performance has been hindered by concerns over its AI ambitions and lack of topline growth [6] - Apple's high valuation, with a price-to-earnings multiple of 30, is considered excessive given its stagnant growth, particularly in the iPhone segment, which is likened to selling TV sets [7] - The upgrade cycle for iPhones is slowing, with consumers delaying purchases, contributing to the challenges faced by Apple [8]