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有机构已看涨金价至5000美元 贵金属牛市加速
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-17 12:40

Core Insights - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $3731.9 per ounce on September 16, driven by multiple factors including shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and supply-demand imbalances [1][2] - Investor demand has overtaken central bank purchases as the primary catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices, with projections indicating an average gold price of $3800 per ounce in Q4 2023 and potential for prices to exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026 [2] Price Movements - COMEX gold futures hit a record high of $3731.9 per ounce, while domestic gold futures closed at 842.08 yuan per gram, reflecting a cumulative increase of 7.37% in September [1] - Silver prices also rose, with COMEX silver futures exceeding $43 per ounce and domestic silver futures reaching a peak of 10152 yuan per kilogram [1] Market Projections - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end gold price target to $3800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong negative correlation between gold and the US dollar as a key pricing factor [1] - UBS forecasts that gold prices will reach $3700 per ounce by June 2026, with a possibility of hitting $4000 per ounce in the event of geopolitical or economic deterioration [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $3700 per ounce for gold by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, suggesting a potential for prices to exceed $4500 per ounce if individual investors diversify into gold similarly to central banks [2] Investment Trends - The trend of "de-dollarization" is expected to intensify, with emerging market central banks, particularly in India, having significantly lower gold reserve ratios compared to the global average, motivating increased allocation to gold assets [2] - The manager of the Yongying Gold ETF believes that gold has further upside potential, particularly as the independence of the Federal Reserve may be challenged and market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 strengthen [2]