财信证券袁闯：结构优化中彰显韧性 政策发力巩固回升基础

Economic Overview - In August, China's economy showed stability in production demand, employment, and prices, with new growth drivers being cultivated, indicating a steady and progressive development trend [1] - The service industry business activity index reached a year-high of 50.5%, while the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively, significantly outpacing the average level of large-scale industries [1] Policy Impact - The "two new" policies have shown significant results, with retail sales growth for furniture, home appliances, and cultural office supplies exceeding 14% [1] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has led to a narrowing of the year-on-year decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), ending an eight-month downward trend, while the decline in industrial enterprise profits has also narrowed [1] Future Outlook - The current economic situation is characterized by a transition from old to new growth drivers and an improvement in quality and efficiency [1] - With the implementation of replacement subsidies and the focus on service consumption policies, along with rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, domestic demand is expected to continue improving [1] - Future policies will focus on structural issues to consolidate new growth drivers and stimulate effective demand, promoting a sustained economic recovery [1] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on low-entry rotation opportunities in high-prosperity sectors, specifically in energy storage, new energy, and service consumption, as well as sectors benefiting from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]