黄金时间·每日论金：金价刺破3700美元后回落 市场静待美联储表态

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices reached a historical high before retreating, with the price opening at $3679.96 and closing at $3689.59 on September 16, reflecting a daily increase of $10.68 or 0.29% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns regarding the Fed's independence, which are driving up gold prices [1] - The release of better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data for August caused a temporary pullback in gold prices after breaching the $3700 mark, but did not alter the overall upward trend [1] - The declining U.S. dollar index, approaching its July low, is providing additional support for gold prices [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Following a breakout from a four-month consolidation phase, gold prices have rapidly surpassed multiple key levels, with a mid-term target set at around $3780 [2] - The price has increased nearly $400 since hitting a low of $3311, indicating a strong upward trend despite recent fluctuations [2] - The Bollinger Bands suggest a wide trading range between $3800 and $3634, which may define future price movements [2] Group 3: Short-term Outlook - Key support levels for gold prices are identified at $3665 (5-day moving average) and $3636 (10-day moving average) [3] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision; a 25 basis point cut without clear future guidance may lead to a short-term price adjustment, while a more aggressive cut could sustain the upward momentum [3]