Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, with the market largely expecting a rate cut, yet the precious metals market is experiencing a pullback from recent highs [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with a probability of 96.1% for this move [1] - The anticipation of a rate cut has been building since early August, leading to a significant pricing in of this expectation, which raises concerns about a potential "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario for precious metals [2][4] Group 2: Impact on Precious Metals - Lower interest rates typically reduce the holding costs for precious metals, yet the current high prices may already reflect the expected rate cuts, leading to risks of profit-taking [2][6] - If the Federal Reserve only cuts rates by 25 basis points without signaling further easing, gold prices may face short-term adjustments, while silver could experience deeper corrections due to its industrial demand [2][5] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Recent U.S. economic data, including a moderate rise in CPI and better-than-expected retail sales, has provided support for the dollar, which in turn pressures precious metals [3] - The dollar index has remained stable despite weak labor market data, indicating that if the Federal Reserve does not suggest a series of rate cuts, the dollar may rise, posing additional risks for precious metals [3][6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite potential short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to factors such as high inflation, rising debt levels, and central bank gold purchases [6][7] - Analysts suggest that any short-term pullback in gold prices could be viewed as a "false dip," with the overall trend expected to continue upward in the longer term [6]
【财经分析】降息在即贵金属高位回落 是见顶还是“假摔”？
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-17 14:18