Blackstone Secured Lending's NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 11 BDC Peers - Part 2 (Includes Calendar Q4 2025 - Q1 2026 Dividend Projections)

Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL) to 11 of its business development company (BDC) peers, focusing on dividend sustainability and financial metrics [1][2][3] Group 1: Dividend Analysis - BXSL declared a base dividend of $0.77 per share for Q2 2025, with a stock price of $31.63, resulting in a trailing 12-month (TTM) dividend yield of 9.74% [10] - For Q3 2025, BXSL maintained the same base dividend of $0.77 per share, with a stock price of $28.59, leading to a TTM dividend yield of 10.77% [27][28] - BXSL's cumulative undistributable taxable income (UTI) coverage ratio was 1.86 as of 6/30/2025, significantly higher than the average of its peers [16] Group 2: Financial Metrics Comparison - BXSL's weighted average annualized yield on debt investments was 10.20% as of 6/30/2025, below the peer average of 11.61% [20] - The company had a below-average weighted average interest rate on outstanding debt at 4.69% as of 6/30/2025, compared to 5.19% the previous year [24] - BXSL's proportion of debt investments with floating interest rates was 99.80%, which was advantageous during rising interest rate environments [22] Group 3: Future Projections - The likelihood of BXSL maintaining a stable base quarterly dividend of $0.77 for Q4 2025 is projected at 80% [33] - A broader dividend range of $0.70 to $0.77 per share is anticipated for Q1 2026, with a 90% probability [34] - The current market conditions suggest a potential dividend reduction in 2026, influenced by management's cautiousness and external economic factors [19][34] Group 4: Investment Recommendation - BXSL is rated as a SELL when trading at a premium of 22.5% or more to the projected NAV, a HOLD between 12.5% and 22.5%, and a BUY when trading at or below 12.5% [37] - The current price target for BXSL is approximately $33.50 per share, with the stock considered notably undervalued at a closing price of $27.54 as of 9/16/2025 [38][39]