Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP): A Bull Case Theory

Group 1 - Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) is a master limited partnership focused on mineral rights and infrastructure, primarily generating income from coal production, with 35% of revenues derived from infrastructure fees [2][4] - The company holds a non-controlling interest in the Sisecam soda ash operation, which has seen a decline in income from $73 million to $16 million, but still has recovery potential [3] - Current free cash flow is approximately $150 million, indicating a sustainable baseline compared to peak operating income exceeding $300 million [3] Group 2 - Management is implementing a disciplined deleveraging strategy aimed at achieving zero debt within 12 months, after which capital returns through dividends and buybacks are expected to accelerate [4] - NRP is projected to deliver a double-digit free cash flow yield, with dividends anticipated to increase post-debt repayment [4][5] - The investment opportunity is enhanced by the avoidance of MLPs by many investors due to tax complexities, leading to potential mispricing [5] Group 3 - Despite market challenges, NRP generated $100 million in operating cash flow during a severe downturn in 2020, reflecting a 7% yield at current valuations [4] - The company benefits from nominal royalty pricing, providing inflation protection and potential upside from carbon capture revenues [4] - The stock price has appreciated approximately 2.4% since previous bullish coverage, with ongoing expectations for dividend reinstatement and robust cash flow [6]