创新药“出海”趋势不可逆

Core Insights - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs "going global" is accelerating, with total foreign licensing amounts nearing $66 billion in the first half of 2025, approaching the total for 2024, indicating significant improvement in China's innovative drug capabilities and globalization efforts [1] - Concerns exist regarding increased policy barriers in overseas markets and the potential loss of core assets for domestic companies due to premature or excessive foreign licensing [1] - The "going global" strategy is now seen as a strategic choice for companies rather than a temporary measure, reflecting an irreversible trend in the industry [1] Group 1: Clinical Value as a Key Factor - Clinical value remains the fundamental basis for the success of innovative drugs in international markets, despite stricter regulations [2] - Multinational pharmaceutical companies view the introduction of Chinese innovative drugs as a strategy to enrich their product pipelines and mitigate patent expiration risks [2] - China ranks second globally in the number of new drugs under development, with over 20% of the global total, and several innovative drugs have successfully entered international markets [2] Group 2: Evolving Collaboration Models - The traditional model of one-time rights transfer to multinational companies is evolving; Chinese companies are now engaging in deeper collaborations through regional licensing, co-development, and revenue-sharing [3] - The "NewCo" model allows companies to not only receive licensing fees but also participate in long-term revenue sharing through equity stakes and phased payments [3] - This shift signifies a transformation from being mere participants in the supply chain to becoming co-creators in the value chain [3] Group 3: Positive Feedback Loop for Domestic Innovation - The revenues generated from international licensing are reinvesting into domestic R&D, enhancing pipeline development and improving trial design and compliance through overseas experience [4] - The recognition of companies' "going global" capabilities by capital markets is driving resources towards high-quality innovative projects, creating a positive cycle of innovation and capital feedback [4] - The "going global" strategy is now a critical measure of China's pharmaceutical innovation's ability to compete globally, with policy barriers and asset loss risks serving as tests of innovation quality rather than outright denials of the strategy [4][5]