离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.1 为去年11月7日以来首次

Group 1 - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.1 mark for the first time since November 7, 2024, with a peak of 7.0965 on September 17, indicating a 0.34% increase since the beginning of September [1] - The onshore RMB is also approaching the 7.1 threshold, closing at 7.1056 on September 17, reflecting a 0.46% increase in September [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to market expectations of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle, leading to a weaker USD and increased demand for RMB assets from foreign investors [1][2] Group 2 - Despite external pressures and weak domestic demand, China's economy has maintained a stable and progressive development trend due to effective macro policies and the acceleration of the national unified market [2] - Key economic indicators have remained stable in the first eight months of the year, supporting the long-term positive outlook for the economy [2] - The recent rise in the RMB against the USD is driven by expectations of significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong inflows of foreign capital into the domestic stock market [2][3] Group 3 - The USD index is expected to face downward pressure, while major non-USD currencies, including the RMB, are likely to appreciate [3] - The significant decline of the USD in the first half of the year has been largely priced in, and the current economic conditions in Europe and Japan may provide the USD with stronger resistance against further declines [3] - Domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies are expected to ensure basic stability in economic operations, providing intrinsic support for the RMB exchange rate [3]