联博基金：以长线思维布局中国股市

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite short-term market gains and signs of overheating in some sectors, there remains an adjustment risk in the stock market, yet long-term investment opportunities in the Chinese stock market are still viable [1] - Structural reforms, policy stimuli, and profit improvements have enhanced the investability of A-shares, with the rolling P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index at approximately 13.5 times, indicating a significant valuation gap compared to other indices [1] - Recent policies such as the "New Nine Articles" and "anti-involution" aim to improve the investability of Chinese enterprises, which is expected to enhance dividend levels and return on equity, attracting more long-term investors [1] Group 2 - China may enter a structurally low-interest-rate environment, which could enhance the cost-effectiveness of the stock market, as investors may face declining returns if they do not increase risk asset allocations [2] - The decline in policy interest rates suggests a drop in the risk-free rate, indicating potential upward movement in valuations, thus investors should consider interest rate backgrounds, corporate quality, and dividend levels when assessing stock market valuations [2] - Although current A-share valuations are slightly above long-term levels, there is still expected upward potential in valuations [2] Group 3 - Market sentiment has not yet overheated, with both overseas and retail funds likely to continue driving stock market performance, as sentiment indicators and capital flows show no significant signs of overheating [3] - The analysis indicates that investor behavior remains relatively rational, with retail investor financing ratios and net inflows into public funds significantly below historical highs, suggesting potential for increased retail participation [3] - Continuous allocation of A-shares by overseas institutional investors reflects international capital's recognition of policy improvements and valuation recovery potential in China, supporting the long-term performance of the stock market [3]