Core Insights - The U.S. value-based care (VBC) service market is rapidly evolving, attracting investors due to its potential for long-term stability and returns, focusing on integrated care rather than fee-for-service models [1] - CVS Health and Evolent Health are key players in the VBC space, aiming to provide higher-quality care at lower costs [1] CVS Health - CVS Health's Oak Street Health operates over 230 centers nationwide, providing primary care to Medicare-eligible patients and expanding VBC across its businesses, including Aetna and MinuteClinic [2] - The latest quarterly performance showed an 8.4% year-over-year revenue increase, although adjusted EPS decreased by 2 cents to $1.81 [3] - CVS is taking steps to stabilize Aetna and Oak Street, including investing in technology and enhancing leadership [3][4] - Caremark, CVS's pharmacy benefit manager, is performing well with high retention rates and partnerships to expand access to medications [5][6] - CVS raised its full-year revenue outlook to at least $391.5 billion, with adjusted EPS expected between $6.30 and $6.40 [6] Evolent Health - Evolent Health experienced a 31.3% year-over-year revenue decline in Q2 2025, with a loss of 10 cents per share compared to 18 cents EPS in the previous year [7] - Despite the revenue decline, Evolent is focused on organic growth, margin expansion, and capital allocation [7] - The company secured four new revenue agreements in Q2, bringing the year-to-date total to 11 [8] - Evolent has a partnership with Aetna to provide oncology services to 250,000 Medicare Advantage members, expected to generate over $250 million in new revenues by Q1 2026 [10] - Evolent's second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $37.5 million, with a projected annualized run rate EBITDA improvement of $20 million by year-end [12] Price Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, CVS shares have increased by 63.7%, while Evolent shares have declined by 23.3% [15] - CVS trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.23X, lower than Evolent's 0.45X [16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVS's 2025 EPS indicates a 17% year-over-year growth to $6.34, with estimates trending upward [18] - Evolent's EPS estimate has remained stable at 42 cents for the past 90 days, representing a 2.4% increase over 2024 [20] Conclusion - Both CVS and Evolent are positioned as major players in the VBC market, with CVS showing stronger strategic execution and an optimistic full-year outlook, making it appear better positioned than Evolent [21]
CVS vs. EVH: Which Value-Based Care Stock Deserves Investor Attention?