Veteran trader rules out 50bps rate cut, predicts 'best results'

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates on September 17, marking the first cut in nine months, with the last cut occurring on December 18, 2024, by 25 basis points [1] - Federal Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a potential rate cut during the Jackson Hole Speech on August 22, indicating that the baseline outlook and shifting balance of risks may warrant an adjustment in policy stance [1] Impact on Equity and Crypto Markets - Anxiety is prevalent in both equity and crypto markets as investors await the Fed's decision, with three distinct scenarios being considered [2] - A 50-basis-point cut would signal significant concern over slowing growth or financial system stress, potentially leading to a rally in crypto markets due to lower capital costs [3] - A 25-basis-point cut is the anticipated scenario, which would initiate a new cycle of easing, possibly diverting over $7 trillion in money-market funds into riskier assets [5] - If the Fed decides to keep rates unchanged, it could lead to a sell-off in stocks and cryptocurrencies, indicating ongoing inflation concerns [7] Cryptocurrency Market Reactions - A significant rate cut could lead to spikes in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, with higher beta tokens like Solana potentially experiencing faster gains, although it may also create short-term volatility [4] - Analysts suggest that a gradual easing rather than a rapid cut would be more beneficial for the markets, with potential for Bitcoin to reach new highs [8] - The cryptocurrency space may see increased investments in yield-bearing tokens, DeFi platforms, and stablecoins as a result of lower yields in traditional markets [6] Market Sentiment and Analyst Views - Analysts from trading firm QCP note that Fed easing is generally supportive of risk assets, but caution that market strength may be tempered by ongoing inflation, deficits, and geopolitical risks [9] - As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading at $115,589.87, reflecting a 1.27% increase over the past week, with the total crypto market cap at $4.02 trillion [10]