US retail sales increase strongly; softening labor market a headwind

Core Insights - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August, driven by consumer spending across various goods and dining out, despite concerns over a weakening labor market and rising prices due to tariffs [1][2][3] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales rose by 0.6% in August, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in July, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.2% rise [4] - Year-over-year, retail sales increased by 5.0%, indicating strong consumer demand [5] - Adjusted for inflation, monthly sales growth was estimated at only 0.2% [5] Sector-Specific Trends - Sales at auto dealerships increased by 0.5%, reflecting higher prices despite a decline in units sold [5] - Clothing store sales advanced by 1.0%, while sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores rose by 0.8% [5] - Online sales surged by 2.0%, following a 0.6% increase in July, suggesting a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6] Economic Context - The increase in retail sales underscores the economy's resilience amid challenges, leading economists to upgrade GDP estimates for the third quarter [3] - The Federal Reserve's primary concern remains the softening labor market, but positive retail data may influence a cautious approach to interest rate cuts [4][6]