美联储如期宣布下调利率25基点 点阵图显示年内或还有两次降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a strong internal consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC voted 11 to 1 in favor of the rate cut, with only new member Milan opposing, advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity and a deceleration in job growth, indicating a conflict between price stability and full employment [1][6] - The FOMC's forward guidance suggests a potential for two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points, with some members hinting at a more aggressive stance [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the two-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 3.55% due to cautious remarks from Powell [5] - The S&P 500 index experienced a brief rise before closing down 0.1%, indicating that the market had already priced in the decision [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, with job growth nearly stagnant this year [5] - The Labor Department's revised data indicated nearly 1 million fewer jobs added than previously reported, heightening FOMC concerns about employment deterioration [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Fed's current stance reflects a delicate balance between inflation pressures and a weakening labor market, with a focus on employment conditions [6][7] - Powell emphasized the need for data-driven decisions and maintaining the Fed's independence, acknowledging potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [7]