智通财经网·2025-09-17 22:46Core Insights - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that Hong Kong stocks experienced a historical low in revenue growth for the first half of 2025, while overall profitability has improved [1][2] - The differentiation between new and old economies is evident, with sectors like information technology, pharmaceuticals, and discretionary consumption showing strong performance [1][3] Summary by Category Overall Performance - Revenue growth for all Hong Kong companies decreased by 0.9% in H1 2025, while excluding financials, oil, and real estate, revenue grew by 0.5%. The Hang Seng Index constituent companies saw a revenue increase of 2.6%, all reflecting a slowdown compared to the previous year [2] - Net profit for all Hong Kong companies grew by 5.4%, and for those excluding financials, oil, and real estate, net profit increased by 11.7%, both better than the previous year and at historical median levels [2] Profitability - Overall profitability has improved, with gross margins and operating profit margins showing positive trends year-on-year, although operating profit margins decreased quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit margin for Hong Kong listed companies has improved both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.0%, which is back to historical average levels [2] Industry Differentiation - The fastest revenue growth was seen in information technology (12.3%), discretionary consumption (8.5%), and financials (5.2%), while the largest declines were in real estate (-20.9%), energy (-9%), and utilities (-4.8%) [3] - The highest net profit growth was recorded in healthcare (202.9%), information technology (60.9%), and materials (52.2%), indicating strong performance in the new economy sectors [3] Inventory Cycle - The overall Hong Kong market is undergoing a destocking cycle, with upstream industries continuing to destock while midstream and downstream sectors have entered a replenishment phase [3] - New economy sectors like information technology, discretionary consumption, and healthcare are in an "active restocking" phase, while traditional sectors like energy and real estate are still in "active destocking" [3] Capital Expenditure - There has been a significant reduction in capital expenditures across most industries during the economic downturn, with real estate, healthcare, and energy showing the least willingness to expand [4] - Only the e-commerce and automotive sectors have seen capital expenditure growth, but this remains at maintenance levels rather than significant increases [4] Industry Fundamentals - High-performing sectors include information technology, non-essential consumer goods distribution and retail (primarily e-commerce), and healthcare, while lower-performing sectors include energy, real estate, and traditional manufacturing [4] - The report suggests that investors should focus on technology growth stocks, particularly in sectors with strong fundamentals and less correlation to the Chinese macroeconomic environment [4]