今日凌晨！美联储年内首次降息！

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since January 2025 [1] - The decision was influenced by signs of slowing economic activity, job growth, and rising inflation [1] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the rate cut is a "risk management" measure and not a response to political pressure [1] Economic Indicators - The Fed noted an increase in downside risks to employment, with job growth slowing and a slight rise in the unemployment rate [2] - Recent data indicates signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, which contributed to the decision to restart rate cuts [2] - Powell highlighted that the changes in the labor market are not solely due to immigration factors but are also linked to a noticeable slowdown in demand [2] Rate Cut Context - The Fed had previously cut rates three times last year, with a total reduction of 100 basis points, but maintained a steady stance this year until now [3] - Powell acknowledged that new tariff policies have raised some prices, contributing to a projected rise in inflation, but this effect is expected to be temporary [3] Future Rate Expectations - The rate decision was supported by 11 out of 12 voting members, with one member advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [4] - The Fed anticipates two more 25 basis point cuts within the year, with projections for additional cuts in the following years [4] - The Fed has revised its GDP growth expectations upward and adjusted unemployment and inflation forecasts, expecting inflation to return to the long-term target of 2% by 2028 [4]