美联储降息后资产如何走向？复盘历史我们得到几个答案

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and the first in nine months [1] - This rate cut is more preventive in nature, aimed at addressing economic slowdown rather than a deep recession, which historically benefits risk assets more than recessionary rate cuts [1] Group 2: Impact on Various Asset Classes - Historical data shows that during past rate cut cycles, various asset classes have reacted significantly, with equities, bonds, and commodities showing varied performance [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of the rate cut, with a nearly 100% success rate in price appreciation within six months of a rate cut [3] - The short-term interest rates are more sensitive to the Fed's policy changes, while long-term rates are influenced by inflation expectations and term premiums [6] Group 3: Stock Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market is likely to experience short-term downward pressure but long-term benefits as liquidity improves and corporate financing costs decrease [9] - Historical trends indicate that after preventive rate cuts, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 15% and Nasdaq by 20% during the 2019 rate cut cycle [9] Group 4: A-Shares and H-Shares - A-shares are expected to benefit from liquidity easing and increased risk appetite, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [10] - H-shares are more sensitive to external liquidity conditions, with both preventive and recessionary rate cuts leading to overall price increases [12] Group 5: Gold and Commodities - Gold prices typically rise during rate cut cycles, with average increases of 10%-15% due to lower opportunity costs and increased demand amid geopolitical risks [16][15] - Oil prices are primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics, with limited correlation to rate cuts, although demand recovery can lead to price increases in a soft landing scenario [25] Group 6: Currency Impacts - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken in the short term following the rate cut, with historical declines of 6%-8% during preventive rate cuts [21] - The Chinese yuan may experience reduced depreciation pressure due to narrowed interest rate differentials, with expectations of appreciation following past rate cuts [28]