美联储重启降息25bp 暗示年内再降两次

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year, amidst significant internal divisions among committee members [1][3][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates reflects a risk management approach, balancing upward inflation risks against downward employment risks [5][8]. - The dot plot indicates a split among committee members, with 6 supporting no further cuts and 9 favoring two additional cuts this year [1][3]. Economic Projections - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is concentrated between 3.25%-3.75%, suggesting a potential 75 basis points of room for further cuts compared to current levels [4]. - Projected GDP growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, with unemployment rates expected to decline slightly from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2027 [11]. Inflation and Employment Insights - Commodity price increases are identified as a significant driver of inflation, with expectations that these effects will intensify in the remaining months of the year and into the next [7]. - The labor market is showing signs of softening, which supports the rationale for the recent rate cut and potential future cuts [8][10].