黄金涨、美元跌，美联储年内首次降息来了！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4% - 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and a resumption of easing measures since December of the previous year [2][4] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, with job growth decelerating and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [3][4] - The inflation rate has risen and remains slightly elevated [3] Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) aims to maximize employment and maintain an inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging the uncertainty in the economic outlook [4] - The FOMC has noted an increase in the risks associated with employment [4] Future Rate Expectations - Predictions suggest the Fed may lower rates to around 3% in the future, with potential further reductions by the end of 2026 [2][7] - The dot plot indicates that most Fed officials expect two more rate cuts in 2025, with some anticipating a total of five cuts to bring rates below 3% [7] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, the U.S. dollar index fell to 96.22, the lowest since February 2022, while gold prices surged, surpassing $3,700 per ounce [11][12] - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility, with the S&P 500 index slightly declining and the Nasdaq index also falling after an initial rise [12] Global Monetary Policy Implications - The Fed's rate cut may open up space for other countries to ease their monetary policies, as seen with the Bank of Canada also lowering its benchmark rate [8] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's actions could create favorable external conditions for domestic monetary easing in other countries, including China [8]