美联储重启降息 还有哪些信息点？一图速览

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The dot plot reveals significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with 6 members favoring a pause and 9 members supporting two additional rate cuts this year [3] - A newly appointed member, Stephen Milan, is speculated to advocate for a more aggressive rate cut of 150 basis points [3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is concentrated between 3.25%-3.75%, indicating a potential reduction of 75 basis points compared to current levels [4] - The latest economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.5% [12] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the recent rate cut as a form of risk management, highlighting the upward risks to inflation and downward risks to employment [5] - Powell noted that rising commodity prices are a significant contributor to inflation, which is expected to continue affecting inflation rates in the remaining months of the year [7] - The labor market is showing signs of softening, and there is a desire to prevent further deterioration [8] Group 4: Institutional Interpretations - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, interpreted the rate cut as a dovish signal, emphasizing the rising risks in the employment sector [9] - Fitch's U.S. economic research head, Olu Sonola, stated that the Fed is prioritizing growth and employment, even at the cost of tolerating higher inflation in the short term [10] - Goldman Sachs' macro strategy head, Simon Dangoor, noted that the majority of Fed members plan to cut rates two more times this year, indicating a dominant dovish stance [10] - Wells Fargo's senior economist, Sarah House, remarked that the meeting's outcome reflects a balance between weakening labor market momentum and persistent high inflation [11]