鲍威尔称“美联储正在裁员10%” 专家：降息25基点太少 50基点太多

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, with expectations for two more cuts within the year [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11 to 1 in favor of the 25 basis point cut, with Stephen Milan being the sole dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [1] - The decision reflects a shift in focus from combating inflation to boosting employment, as indicated by the removal of previous statements about a robust labor market [5][8] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly, with increased risks to employment, prompting predictions of two additional 25 basis point cuts in October and December [2][3] - The median forecast from the "dot plot" suggests a total reduction of 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, bringing the rate down to approximately 3.5% to 3.75% [5][8] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets initially rose, but later retreated, while the dollar strengthened and gold prices fell [15][16] - Analysts express mixed views on the market's future, with some warning of potential bubbles and others seeing opportunities in gold as a hedge against a weakening dollar [16][21] Employment and Inflation Dynamics - The Fed's acknowledgment of slowing job growth and rising unemployment signals a delicate balance between stabilizing prices and ensuring full employment [8][10] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast has been adjusted upward to 2.6%, indicating a longer path to achieving the 2% target [8] Political Context - The appointment of Stephen Milan, a former economic advisor to President Trump, raises questions about the Fed's independence, although Chairman Powell insists that decisions are based solely on data [13][14] - The internal divisions within the Fed regarding future rate cuts reflect a complex economic outlook influenced by labor supply changes and government policy uncertainties [14][21]