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美联储年内首次降息落地,后续降息路径如何?机构点评速览
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-18 01:17

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with expectations for further cuts by the end of the year and into the next two years [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Predictions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, with a forecast of an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end and 25 basis points each year for the next two years [1][2] - The dot plot indicates a target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from 3.9% in June, while maintaining inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [1] - The Federal Reserve's approach is characterized as risk management, focusing on controlling employment market downturn risks [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Citic Securities expects further rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December, suggesting that the market may see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern in bond markets and a "catch-up" in stock markets [1] - CICC notes that while another rate cut is likely in October, the threshold for future cuts will become increasingly high due to rising inflation concerns [2] - Xiangcai Securities highlights that significantly revised employment data is a major driver for the recent rate cut, indicating a shift from economic slowdown to a more severe employment downturn [3]