北美观察丨美联储再度九月降息 平衡术下释放哪些深层信号

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since the end of 2024 [1][4] - The decision reflects a cautious approach amid a weakening job market and political pressures, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to maintaining its independence [5][11] Background of Rate Cut - The rate cut comes in the context of a softening job market, with rising unemployment and slowing hiring being significant concerns for the Fed [5] - In contrast to the previous year's aggressive 50 basis point cut, this adjustment is seen as a small step aimed at risk management rather than a decisive shift in policy [5][17] Economic Projections and Dot Plot - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that two more 25 basis point cuts are expected by the end of the year, potentially lowering rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of 2025 [7] - The dot plot suggests a gradual decline in long-term interest rate expectations, with projections for 2026 and 2027 being slightly lower than previous estimates, yet still above the neutral rate and inflation target [7][8] Internal Disagreements - There is a notable division among Fed members, with some advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points, while the majority favored a more gradual approach [8][10] - Powell acknowledged these differing opinions but emphasized the importance of reaching a consensus through diverse viewpoints [8] Powell's Press Conference Highlights - Powell stated that the 25 basis point cut was a suitable choice for risk management, rejecting the idea of a larger cut due to lack of broad support [10] - He clarified that the rate cut was primarily in response to job market weaknesses rather than a signal that inflation concerns have been resolved [10][15] - Powell defended the Fed's independence in the face of political pressure, asserting that decisions are based on data rather than political influence [11][12] Overall Implications - The rate cut is seen as a balancing act between addressing employment pressures and maintaining the Fed's independence amid political scrutiny [15][17] - The cautious approach indicates that while the Fed is willing to ease monetary policy, it remains vigilant about inflation risks and external pressures [15][17]