中信证券：美联储降息或推动港股短期上涨 长期仍回归基本面

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have historically had a significant short-term positive impact on the Hong Kong stock market, with distinct patterns observed based on the type of rate cut [1] Group 1: Impact of Rate Cuts - Most rate cut cycles, except for the unique situations in 2019 and 2020, have led to short-term increases in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - In accommodative rate cuts, the performance of the Hong Kong stock market has shown a phase-synchronized relationship with foreign capital flows, as seen in 2001 and 2007 [1] - The 2020 rate cut, which exceeded expectations, triggered panic and led to a short-term withdrawal of foreign capital, resulting in a decline in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2: Divergence in Market Behavior - In preemptive rate cuts, the Hong Kong stock market often moves in the opposite direction of foreign capital flows, driven by the expansion of China's policy space [1] - During the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts created a favorable environment for the Hong Kong market's financial defense [1] - The direct impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2024 is expected to be limited, with the key driver for the Hong Kong stock market's rise being China's policy measures [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Current observations indicate a cooling U.S. job market, but economic resilience remains, with rate cuts aimed at addressing potential risks [1] - Short-term growth sectors such as technology, consumer discretionary, and pharmaceuticals are likely to benefit from these conditions [1] - If China initiates synchronized easing with the U.S., it could lead to increased foreign capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting the core asset allocation value in the current environment [1]