世界步入新周期：当其他央行降息路走不动时 美联储重新出发了

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is preparing to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, a rare occurrence in the current century, while many non-U.S. central banks are concluding their own rate-cutting cycles [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has restarted its easing cycle after announcing a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points over three consecutive months since December [1][3]. - Following the recent 25 basis point cut, the Fed is expected to continue lowering rates in the remaining meetings of the year, with the median forecast suggesting only one additional cut next year [3][4]. Group 2: Global Central Bank Divergence - The Fed's actions are seen as diverging from other major central banks, which are expected to implement only modest rate cuts of 40-60 basis points by the end of next year [4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank are perceived to have concluded their rate-cutting cycles, while the Bank of Japan is slowly increasing rates [4]. Group 3: Currency Market Implications - The divergence in monetary policy is likely to have immediate effects on the foreign exchange market, with the U.S. dollar weakening after a period of relative stability [5]. - The euro has appreciated significantly, with a 15% increase against the dollar this year, raising concerns for the ECB regarding inflation targets [5][7]. Group 4: Stock Market Reactions - Historically, Fed easing has been a positive factor for global stock markets, especially when it leads to a "soft landing" for the economy [8]. - Since April, expectations of a dovish Fed and optimism surrounding technology stocks have driven global stock indices to new highs, with some analysts suggesting that the market is still in the early stages of an upward cycle [8].