新西兰GDP意外深跌0.9% 市场降息预期急速升温

Economic Performance - New Zealand's GDP contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter, significantly worse than the expected contraction of 0.3% and following a revised growth of 0.9% in the first quarter [1][5] - The economy is still smaller than its level at the beginning of 2024, indicating a sluggish recovery [3] Monetary Policy Expectations - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to lower the official cash rate (OCR) from 3% to 2.5% in upcoming meetings, with a potential 50 basis point cut in October [3][4] - Economists predict further downward risks to the terminal rate of 2.5% due to the significant economic contraction [3] Government Response and Economic Outlook - Prime Minister Christopher Luxon faces pressure to stimulate economic growth ahead of the 2026 elections, with the government attributing economic decline to global events [4] - The unemployment rate has risen to 5.2%, the highest in five years, compounded by reduced immigration and rising living costs, which have suppressed consumer spending [4] Sector Performance - The construction sector saw a 1.8% decline in output, while manufacturing output fell by 3.5%, contributing to the overall economic contraction [5] - Household spending increased by only 0.4% in the second quarter, a significant drop from the 1.4% growth in the first quarter [5]