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广发证券:从加息周期步入降息周期 看好全球制造业投资上行
智通财经网·2025-09-18 03:20

Group 1 - The global manufacturing investment is expected to rise, with a focus on overseas resource products, industrial goods, consumer goods in Europe and the US, and supply chain companies [1] - Resources with global pricing power include oil and gas, marine engineering, mining, and shipbuilding sectors [1] - Industrial goods with increasing overseas market share include engineering machinery, forklifts, and high-tech equipment [1] - Consumer goods, particularly hand tools in the US, showed significant performance during the last interest rate cut cycle [1] - Companies deeply involved in the global industrial supply chain are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The global PMI reached a 14-month high in August, with 18 out of 33 countries showing growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US [2] - Germany's fiscal stimulus has significantly impacted its manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI rising above the 50 mark for the first time in August [2] - The US is promoting manufacturing return through external tariffs and internal tax cuts, leading to increased construction spending, with a focus on traditional industries like metal manufacturing [2] Group 3 - US manufacturing inventory levels are at historical lows, initiating a replenishment cycle after 20 months of active destocking [3] - Retailers are leading the destocking process, which is now transitioning into a replenishment trend, positively affecting manufacturing and wholesale sectors [3] - Different sub-sectors of machinery are experiencing varying levels of expansion, with construction machinery showing the strongest recovery [3] - The recovery in industrial goods is expected to be resilient and sustainable, while consumer goods are more sensitive to interest rates and have a stronger recovery potential [3]