美联储降息后美元波动加剧

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the US dollar index following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, highlighting the cautious approach of the Fed towards future monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, leading to a temporary drop in the dollar index to a new low of 96.224 since February 2022 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the rate cut was a measure to manage risks associated with a potentially weak labor market, emphasizing that there is no immediate need to accelerate the easing process [1] - The latest dot plot suggests a potential further reduction of 50 basis points in the remaining two meetings of the year, with only one planned cut in 2026, indicating a cautious policy stance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar index rebounded to close at 97.074, marking a daily increase of 0.44% [1] - Analysts interpret the Fed's cautious outlook as a reflection of ongoing concerns regarding inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, suggesting that monetary policy will remain data-dependent [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index has broken below a head-and-shoulders pattern and a trading range, currently experiencing a rebound after this breakdown [1] - Key support is identified at 96.37, which is the low point from July 1 and the lowest point of the year; a further drop below this level could target the 95.00 mark, with a measured decline from the head-and-shoulders pattern suggesting a potential drop to 94.44 [1]