美联储降息靴子落地！降息预期或不如市场反应极致

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has shown resilience since early April, but high valuations suggest an increased probability of sideways movement and a slowing upward trend [1][6]. Economic Outlook - The labor market is experiencing a substantial slowdown, while inflation remains steady, leading the Federal Reserve to shift its focus from preventing inflation to balancing employment [5]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points was nearly unanimous, with only one dissenting vote, reflecting a temporary alleviation of concerns regarding internal divisions within the Fed [5]. - Economic projections have been adjusted, with GDP growth expectations for the end of the year raised by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%, while PCE inflation and unemployment rate expectations remain unchanged at 3% and 4.5%, respectively [5]. Market Implications - The Fed's decision to lower rates is seen as a response to the cooling labor market, but the anticipated rate cuts may not be as aggressive as the market currently expects [6]. - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline as the current fiscal policy under the Trump administration emphasizes fiscal dominance with supportive monetary policy [6]. - The U.S. stock market is likely to experience continued high volatility, with current valuations being elevated, leading to an increased likelihood of sideways trading and a slowing rate of increase [6].