美联储下调利率25个基点，年内还有两次降息稳了？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Fed's dot plot indicates the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1][2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, emphasizing the need to respond to a cooling labor market [1][3]. - The Fed's economic forecast report slightly upgraded GDP growth predictions for 2025 and 2026 to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, both up by 0.2 percentage points from June [2]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - The Fed is prioritizing employment over inflation, indicating a higher tolerance for inflation in the short term [2][3]. - The projected unemployment rate remains stable at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, unchanged from previous forecasts [2]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Future Projections - There is significant division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with 9 out of 19 voting members supporting two more cuts, while others are more cautious [3][5]. - The dot plot reflects a lack of consensus, with some members advocating for only one additional cut or none at all [5][6]. - The Fed's decision-making process is reportedly unaffected by political factors, as emphasized by Powell [6][7].