成本端上行动力不足 LPG期货弱势震荡

Market Review - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures showed weak fluctuations, with the 2511 contract closing at 4425 yuan/ton, and the price difference between October and November around 50 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 17, the Dalian Commodity Exchange had 13,002 LPG futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - Analysts from Rabobank, including Florence Schmit, expect European natural gas prices to stabilize at over 20 euros per megawatt-hour starting in the second quarter of next year due to new liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity coming online [2] - Nippon Yusen KK, Japan's largest shipping company, plans to expand its LNG fleet by approximately 50% by early 2029 to meet the growing global demand for this ultra-low temperature fuel [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures indicates that there is insufficient upward momentum on the cost side, with downstream PDH profits declining, maintaining a bearish outlook on LPG. The decrease in crude oil demand and increased supply lead to rising oversupply pressure, suggesting further downside potential. The main contract's basis remains relatively high, while PDH profits are expected to weaken, although demand remains acceptable with current operating rates exceeding 70% [3] - Hualian Futures notes that international oil prices briefly rebounded above a series of moving averages. Domestic LPG supply decreased week-on-week but remains at a multi-year high. Inventory levels have risen, with port storage rates at mid-range for recent years. Refinery storage rates have increased but are still near multi-year lows. The demand side is experiencing a seasonal lull, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low, declining growth in restaurant consumption, and overall chemical demand weakening. PDH weekly capacity utilization has dropped to multi-year lows, while alkylation and MTBE capacity utilizations have also decreased, with margins remaining low. The "gas/oil" price ratio is neutral to high. The strategy suggests holding a small long position with stop-loss references around 4300-4400 [3]