美联储预防性降息落地 金价中长期向上趋势未改

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut within 2025 and a continuation of the easing cycle after three consecutive cuts in 2024 [2] - The decision to cut rates is primarily driven by a weak labor market, which poses greater risks than the moderate rebound in inflation, prompting the Fed to take "preventive" measures [2] - The dot plot indicates that among 19 Fed officials, 9 expect one more rate cut this year, while another 9 anticipate two additional cuts, and one official predicts a total cut of 125 basis points [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged approximately 40% year-to-date, driven by market sentiment surrounding the Fed's rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] - The current gold price is trading around $3,657.58 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.05%, and has shown a bullish short-term trend [1][2] - Analysts expect that while geopolitical factors may introduce volatility in gold prices, the long-term outlook remains positive as gold serves as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are currently supported by the 183-hour moving average, with potential resistance at $3,685/86 if the price breaks above the 20-period moving average [4] - The Fed's dovish stance is expected to benefit gold in a low-interest-rate environment, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and supports inflation expectations [4]