The Outlook for Hot US Temps Pushes Nat-Gas Prices Higher

Core Insights - Natural gas prices in the US have shown a recovery from a two-week low, driven by forecasts of increased demand due to late summer heat, which is expected to limit inventory buildup ahead of the winter heating season [2] - US natural gas production is at a near-record high, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 0.2% to 106.63 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [3] - Natural gas inventories have increased, with a reported rise of 71 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending September 5, exceeding market expectations and the five-year average [6] Production and Demand - US dry gas production reached 106.0 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.8% [4] - Lower-48 state gas demand was reported at 73.6 bcf/day, up 1.0% year-over-year [4] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 15.2 bcf/day, marking a 4.0% week-over-week increase [4] Electricity Output - US electricity output for the week ending September 6 rose by 1.03% year-over-year to 83,003 GWh, with a 52-week period increase of 2.97% to 4,264,559 GWh [5] Inventory Levels - As of September 5, natural gas inventories were down 1.3% year-over-year but were 6.0% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply [6] - European gas storage was reported to be 81% full as of September 14, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 87% [6]